Thomas Soseco

Globalisation has made national economies increasingly interconnected, so economic crises, wars, commodity price shocks, and geopolitical conflicts occurring in one region can quickly affect inflation, employment, and household welfare in Indonesia.  Focusing on oil-price shocks and examining how global economic disturbances may alter the traditional relationship between inflation and unemployment, I summarised the results as follows: Globalisation increases economic transmission. Events such as wars, financial crises, pandemics, or supply disruptions can spread across countries through trade, energy markets, exchange rates, and financial flows. Indonesia is therefore highly exposed to external shocks.  Indonesia is vulnerable to oil-price shocks. Although Indonesia is a major energy producer, it remains a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products. Rising global oil prices therefore increase transportation and production costs domestically, creating inflationary press...

We are thrilled to announce that our paper titled "Social Capital and Food Security in the Face of Disasters: A New Insight from Rural Households in Indonesia" has been published in the Indonesian Journal of Development Studies.  This paper is a joint research conducted with Isnawati Hidayah (Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy & Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS)), Nila Cahayati (Departemen Studi Pembangunan Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember), Fajar Try Leksono (ROTASI Institute (Institute for Rural Development and Sustainability)), Yessi Rahmawati (Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Airlangga) and me. The paper raises the issue in Indonesia, which is prone to natural disasters, that households need the ability to maintain their resilience and living standards by enhancing social capital in the community. Hence, an examination of the impact of natural disasters on a household’s standard of living measured from food ex...

I had the opportunity to present our paper at The International Conference on Green Energy and Environmental Technology (ICGEET) 2026, hosted by Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia (UPI) in Bandung on Wednesday, 24 June 2026. Our paper, "Childcare Burden and Women's Labour Force Participation: Evidence from Indonesia," is a collaborative effort with Fajar Try Leksono (ROTASI Institute – Institute for Rural Development & Sustainability), Isnawati Hidayah (Center of Economic and Law Studies/CELIOS), Media Wahyudi Askar (Universitas Gadjah Mada), and Nila Cahayati (Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember). In this paper, we investigates increasing women's participation in the labour market has become one of Indonesia's key development priorities. While educational attainment among women has continued to improve, labour force participation remains relatively low compared with many neighbouring countries. One of the frequently cited barriers is the responsibility of carin...

Indonesia, as an archipelago nation provide an ideal example of how inequality between regions matters. Islands that are separated by sea/water create natural barriers that limit interaction between islands, hence leading to unequal levels of development.  Java Island is the most developed region in the country. It is the place for Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta and the nation’s biggest city. Java Island is also the home of more than half of the 270 million of the Indonesian population but only consist of approximately 13% of the Indonesian land area.   The unequal development can also be shown from economic and social aspects, where provinces in Java Island consistently earn a higher level than the national average. This created regions that are lagged or depressed. For example, provinces in Papua Island, despite having higher per capita income, have lower average school years of the population aged 15 and above, lower life expectancy at birth, and a higher poverty rate....

It was an honour to welcome Dr. Adamu Ahmed Wudil from the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA), Nigeria, to Universitas Negeri Malang (UM) in May 2026 as part of his postdoctoral research visit. Dr. Adamu joined UM through the EQUITY Postdoctoral Fellowship Programme, managed by the Institute for Research and Community Service (LPPM) UM in collaboration with the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Technology of the Republic of Indonesia, and funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP).  The supervisory team for Dr. Adamu consists of Thomas Soseco, S.E., M.Sc., Ph.D. as Lead Supervisor, with Dr. Tri Wahyu Hardaningrum, S.E., M.Pd., and Febry Wijayanti, S.E., M.E., Ph.D. serving as Co-Supervisors. We are also grateful for the valuable technical support provided by Ahmad Priyono, S.E. Figure 1. UM IPF with Dr. Adamu and the Supervisory Team During his visit, Dr. Adamu and the supervisory team engaged in intensive research discussions and coll...

Some papers using matching methods, discussing economic problems within Indonesian context: Cahyadi, E. R. (2013). Contract farming and risks for smallholders in the oil-palm industry in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 49(3), 381-382. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2013.850634 Skoufias, E., Katayama, R. S., & Essama-Nssah, B. (2012). Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 48(3), 351-368. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2012.728638 Clements, C., Alwang, J., & Achdiawan, R. (2019). Value chain approaches in a stagnant industry: The case of furniture production in Jepara, Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 55(3), 341-365. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2019.1576855 Shrestha, R. (2021). Health Insurance for the poor, healthcare use and health outcomes in Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 57(1), 85-110. https://doi.org/10.10...

Some papers using multinomial and ordered response models, discussing economic problems within Indonesian context Dartanto, T., & Nurkholis. (2013). The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 49(1), 61-84. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2013.772939 Lee, G., Pratiwi, A., Farikhah, Suzuki, A., & Kurosaki, T. (2025). Online Communities of Practice as Agricultural information Platforms: A Case Study of Indonesian Shrimp Farmers During the Covid-19 Pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 61(1), 123-158. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2437825 Prabowo, A. S., & Pepinsky, T. B. (2026). Indonesia’s New Capital City: Public Funding and Public Support. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 1–71. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2026.2646837 Sulistiyo Wibowo, S. (2015). Credit Constraints, Risk Sharing, and Household Welfare: The Case of Indonesia. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic St...

Some papers using binary response models (logit, probit), discussing economic problems within Indonesian context: Jiménez, J. D. D., & Salas-Velasco, M. (2000). Modeling educational choices. A binomial logit model applied to the demand for higher education. Higher Education , 40(3), 293-311. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1004098300436 Lee, G., Pratiwi, A., Farikhah, Suzuki, A., & Kurosaki, T. (2025). Online Communities of Practice as Agricultural information Platforms: A Case Study of Indonesian Shrimp Farmers During the Covid-19 Pandemic. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 61(1), 123-158. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2024.2437825 Soseco, T., Hidayah, I., & Rini, A. D. (2022). Gender Determinant on Multidimensional Poverty Index: Evidence from Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan Ilmu Politik , 26(2), 137-151. https://doi.org/10.22146/jsp.69320 Other good to read paper: Breen, R., Karlson, K. B., & Holm, A. (2018). Interpreting and understanding logits...

Some papers in quantile estimation, discussing economic problems within Indonesian context:  Aizawa, T. (2018). Regional disparity in the body mass index distribution of Indonesians: New evidence beyond the mean. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 54(1), 85-112. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2017.1406596 Sohn, K. (2015). Gender discrimination in earnings in Indonesia: A fuller picture. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies , 51(1), 95-121. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074918.2015.1016569 Soseco, T., Olivia, S., & Oxley, L. (2024). The Determinants of Household Net Wealth in Indonesia. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies , 41(2), 152-178. https://www.iseas.edu.sg/flagship-publications/journal-of-southeast-asia-economies/ Another nice to read papers: Yu, K., Lu, Z., & Stander, J. (2003). Quantile regression: applications and current research areas. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D: The Statistician, 52(3), 331-350. https://doi.or...

Menteri Pendidikan Sains dan Teknologi Brian Yuliarto. Sumber: Tempo   Menteri Pendidikan Sains dan Teknologi (m endiktisaintek) menyarankan warga kampus, dosen dan mahasiswa, untuk tidak menggunakan kendaraan pribadi di tengah kondisi krisis global dan menggunakan sepeda ataupun berjalan kaki ke kampus (Tempo, 06/04). Hal ini kemudian mendapat reaksi beragam dari netizen. Konteks Indonesia yang memang bukan pejalan kaki. Lebih luas lagi, secara rata-rata orang Indonesia tergolong tidak banyak beraktivitas fisik.  Padahal aktivitas fisik ini berhubungan positif terhadap kesehatan. Penelitian di Jurnal Nature Penelitian berjudul "Large-scale physical activity data reveal worldwide activity inequality" yang dipublikasikan di Nature (2017) menemukan hubungan antara kesenjangan aktivitas fisik dan tingkat kesehatan.  Kesenjangan aktivitas fisik digambarkan dengan membandingkan proporsi penduduk yang beraktivitas tinggi dan beraktivitas rendah. Secara matematis, hal ini digamb...

  The idea that developing countries can bypass manufacturing and leapfrog straight to services has become more fashionable. Services are becoming a more important source of economic growth and commercial activity, and many question whether traditional industrialization still matters — or is even possible. India’s business process outsourcing boom, UAEs success with financial services, and the Phillippines’s call centre surge are all held up as proof that countries can potentially skip factory-based production. We should acknowledge new service-based development opportunities. But the notion that countries can skip industrialization is mostly wishful thinking. The evidence shows that very few countries have developed without a strong, competitive manufacturing base. The reason is that services cannot replace what manufacturing uniquely provides: sustained productivity growth, innovation, trade, and the foundation for a strong economy. Read more story at this link: https://www.thegl...

  It is my pleasure to join as a speaker at the Oceania Stata Conference 2026, which was held on Thursday, 5 February 2026. This is a prestigious conference among Stata users to learn about the development in Stata and its application. This year's conference featured 20 speakers sharing their experience with Stata (look for the agenda here ).  In my session, I delivered a presentation on the application of Dagum Type III Model in measuring household net wealth inequality in Indonesia. This work is a collaborative paper by Dr. Susan Olivia (University of Waikato), Prof. Les Oxley (University of Waikato), and me. In the paper, I emphasised the importance of measuring household net wealth inequality, which is different from income and expenditure measurement due to the existence of negative values. This is caused by debts higher than total wealth.  The Dagum Type III model can accommodate this issue. Additionally, the Stata command of  dagumfit  allows us to produc...

Pada hari Selasa, 27 Januari 2026 terlaksana Pelatihan Publikasi Ilmiah dan Manajemen Data untuk Pemula hari kedua. Acara ini adalah kolaborasi ROTASI Institute dan Edukasa. Pada sesi ini, saya membagikan materi tentang publikasi karya ilmiah dan pemilihan jurnal. Dibahas pula prinsip pentingnya publikasi karya ilmiah dan asas pemilihan jurnal yang dituju. Sesi ini juga membahas indeksasi, aspek-aspek dalam pengelolaan jurnal, serta proses submission. Tidak lupa, membahas juga alasan-alasan kenapa manuskrip ditolak.  Para penulis diharapkan memperhatikan indeksasi jurnal karena menunjukkan kualitas dan posisi jurnal.  Penulis juga perlu memprioritaskan kualitas artikel dan bukan sekedar kuantitas. Fokus harus jangka panjang yakni lebih baik punya artikel sedikit namun berkualitas tinggi daripada punya artikel banyak tapi berkualitas rendah.  Acara ini dipandu oleh Denny Yarmawati (Universitas Andalas) dengan dihadiri 300 peserta di ruang Zoom dan disiarkan livestream...

 🏠 OSC26 x Thomas Soseco Thomas Soseco will be combining his over 10 years of experience using Stata with his focus on applied economics in his presentation Household Net Wealth Inequality in Indonesia: Evidence from a Dagum Type III Model. See the full lineup of speakers at https://lnkd.in/ga_Wm_HG

Research in behavioural economics, sociology, and psychology shows a strong link between economic inequality and status signalling (showing off wealth, luxury goods, branded items, lifestyle, physical appearance, etc.). Source: Warwick Business School This happens for three main reasons. First, greater inequality leads to higher pressure to signal social status. When the income gap is large, people feel more aware of where they sit in the social hierarchy, higher pressure to avoid looking “poor”, and higher motivation to display signs of success.  This is called status anxiety. According to Wilkinson and Pickett (2010), in unequal societies, people’s perceptions of inferiority or status anxiety are increasing as the inequality is a relative experience; people evaluate their well-being compared with a reference point.  Second, inequality increases competitive consumption, where in unequal countries, consumption becomes a means of competing, not just a way of living. People buy ...