Thomas Soseco

Publikasi Badan Pusat Statisik (BPS) menunjukkan penurunan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) selama lima bulan di tahun 2024. Penurunan IHK ini menunjukkan kondisi deflasi, yakni penurunan tingkat harga umum barang dan jasa secara terus-menerus dalam suatu periode tertentu. Data IHK 150 Kabupaten/Kota (2022=100) menunjukkan IHK naik dari 105,19 di Januari 2024 menjadi 105,58 di Februari, 106,13 di Maret, 106,40 di April.  Kemudian IHK turun menjadi 106,37 di bulan Mei 2024, 106,28 di Juni, 106,09 di Juli, 106,06 di bulan Agustus, dan 105,93 di bulan September.  Saat harga-harga turun, masyarakat seharusnya akan terbantu dalam mengatasi pengeluarannya. Namun produsen justru akan berhadapan dengan harga-harga yang terus turun yang berpotensi menggerus pendapatan mereka. Penurunan harga ini disebabkan oleh dua hal, yakni penurunan penawaran ( supply ) dan penurunan permintaan ( demand ).  Supply barang yang semakin sedikit akan mendorong kenaikan harga barang. Namun saat suplai kembali normal

Robustness check seringkali menjadi upaya justifikasi peneliti bahwa model dan pemilihan variabel di penelitiannya adalah secara struktural valid. Namun, sebaliknya, bila robustness check tidak dilaksanakan dengan baik, ia akan menjadi tidak informatif dan bisa jadi membawa persepsi yang keliru.  Satu artikel lama namun masih relevan membahas bagaimana core dan non-critical core variables dapat diuji untuk mendukung robustness check.  White, H. & Lu, X. (2010) Robustness Checks and Robustness Tests in Applied Economics. https://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/micro/s11/white.pdf

We are thrilled to announce that our article titled "An Application of the Dagum Type III Model to Measure Household Net Wealth Inequality in Indonesia" authored with Susan Olivia and Les Oxley (the University of Waikato, New Zealand) is accepted for publication at the Journal of Econometric Methods.  Abstract :  This paper applies the Dagum Type III model to measure household net wealth inequality in Indonesia utilising data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 1993–2014. The results are the distribution of household net wealth in Indonesia is right-skewed, with long-and sparse-hand tails that reflect a large proportion of households that have very low net wealth and a small proportion of households that have very high net wealth. Further, the inequality of household net wealth in Indonesia declined, as shown by the decrease in the Gini coefficient. Keywords: household net wealth; negative values; Dagum Type III JEL Classification: C14; C55; D63; I31 How to cite: So

We are grateful that our publication titled "The Determinants of Household Net Wealth in Indonesia: Application of Quantile Regression" authored with Susan Olivia and Les Oxley (the University of Waikato, New Zealand) is published at the Journal of Southeast Asian Economies Vol. 41, No. 2 (2024), pp. 152–78 Abstract Estimation of the determinants of household net wealth that consider heterogeneity across income classes using only average values can lead to faulty interpretations. This paper controls for such variation in classes in relation to efforts to increase household wealth by applying quantile regression using Indonesian household data. For this purpose, the study uses the Indonesian Family Life Survey, using five waves of the survey from 1993 to 2014. Empirical findings show that heterogeneity in household characteristics across classes can influence wealth, with major differences between urban and rural households. Some significant contributors include household size

In modern economies, innovation is a critical driver of economic growth and societal well-being. The capacity of an innovation-driven economy to enhance household resilience, particularly in the face of economic shocks, is essential for equitable prosperity. This study investigates the determinants necessary for households to better withstand and recover from economic disruptions, highlighting the importance of inclusive economic strategies. The Role of Innovation Innovation is fundamental to rising living standards. Productivity growth, which is vital for increasing real wages and per capita income, largely stems from continuous innovation. The McKinsey Global Institute and Boston Consulting Group emphasize that innovation surpasses other inputs, such as capital and labor, in driving productivity growth. Harvard economist Elhanan Helpman also supports this view, noting that innovation is a significant driver of productivity and, consequently, cross-country income variations. An innova

We are thrilled to announce that our book chapter titled "Indonesia’s Path to Sustainability: Exploring the Intersections of Ecological Footprint, Technology, Global Trade, Financial Development, and Renewable Energy" has been published by Springer.  This chapter is authored by Asif Raihan, Liton Chandra Voumik, Mohammad Ridwan, Salma Akter, Abdul Rahim Ridzuan, Wahjoedi, Thomas Soseco, and Nor Asmat Ismail Abstract Understanding the complex relationship between socio-economic factors and environmental sustainability is crucial in devising effective strategies for sustainable development goals. This study analyses the impact of renewable energy use, economic growth, financial development, trade globalisation, and technological innovations on Indonesia’s ecological footprint from 1990 to 2020. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and other estimators, the study examined the short- and long-term correlations between the environmental footprint and related fa

Finally published! Our paper titled Interprovincial Wealth Inequality by Factor Components in Indonesia in collaboration with Susan Olivia and Les Oxley (the University of Waikato, New Zealand) is finally published at the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (BIES) Volume 60, 2024 - Issue 2 The Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (BIES) is the leading journal on Indonesia’s economy and society. It aims to address not only economic analysis and policy but also the intersection between economics, development, and area studies. In doing so, it plays an important role in helping the world—including Indonesians themselves—to better understand Indonesia. BIES has been published continuously since 1965. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies (BIES) is published by Indonesia Project, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, The Australian National University To cite this article: Soseco, T., Olivia, S., & Oxley, L

This video is from World Bank Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Since the 1990s, many of them have done well enough to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the general perception that the last three decades have been great for development.  But this is because of abysmally low expectations—remnants from a period when more than two-thirds of the world lived on less than a dollar a day.  So what can middle-income countries do to tackle poverty and, climate change and elevate themselves into the higher-income bracket?  Meet Somik Lall, Director of the latest World Bank Group World Development Report.

Edisi the Economist (11/07) berfokus pada kualitas sumber daya manusia. Salah satu alat ukur kualitas sumber daya manusia adalah kecerdasan atau  intelligence quotient (IQ). Angka IQ yang tinggi berarti manusia tersebut lebih berkualitas bila dibandingkan dengan orang yang memiliki IQ lebih rendah. Publikasi World Population Review menunjukkan pada tahun 2017, Indonesia memiliki rata-rata IQ sebesar 78,49. Posisi Indonesia lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara tetangga seperti Singapura dengan rata-rata IQ 105,89, Kamboja (99,75), Thailand (88,87), dan Malaysia (87,58). Rata-rata IQ Indonesia kurang lebih setara seperti Oman (78,7) , Kuwait (78,64), Papua Nugini (78,49) dan Ekuador (78,26).  Pemilik rata-rata IQ tertinggi di dunia adalah Jepang dengan IQ 107,48. Peringkat kedua adalah Taiwan dengan rata-rata IQ 106,47 kemudian Singapura di posisi ketiga dengan rata-rata IQ 105,89. Posisi berikutnya adalah Hong Kong (105,37), China (104,1), Korea Selatan (102,35), Belarusia (101,6), d

We are delighted that our paper titled Do Multifinance Institutions Matter for Poverty Reduction? Evidence from Indonesia in collaboration with Ni Kadek Laksmi is published at Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan - SINTA 2.   Abstract Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) can help reduce poverty  by offering small loans to people who cannot get bank loans due to lack of collateral. However, in Indonesia, access to microfinance institutions is unequally distributed, as shown by the establishment of MFIs in Indonesia, which covers only 22 out of 34 provinces. This condition limits their impact on poverty reduction. This study examines how access to MFIs and the loans they provide affect poverty rates in Indonesia, using cross-sectional data from 22 provinces between 2016 and 2022. The results show that access to MFIs and the loans they provide do not significantly reduce poverty. This is due to poor infrastructure, low-quality MFI services, and insufficient loan amounts. The  study  also  found  that