Data-Driven Policy for Reducing Poverty and Inequality (from National Seminar on Statistics 2025)

-

Development encompasses more than economic growth; it represents a holistic effort to improve human well-being. Reliable data are indispensable for evaluating whether people today are better off than in the past, and for assessing how effectively development policies address poverty and inequality. One of the enduring challenges in development is ensuring that the gains from economic growth are shared equitably across society.

In Indonesia, this challenge remains pressing. The Gini ratio, a key measure of income inequality, stood at 0.375 in March 2025, indicating a moderate but persistent gap between the rich and the poor. Although lower than in many developing economies, this figure reveals that wealth and opportunities remain unevenly distributed, often leading to social tension and inequality of opportunity.

The Role of Data in Development Policy

Data produced by the Central Statistics Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) form the foundation of Indonesia’s evidence-based policymaking. Through large-scale censuses and national surveys, BPS provides vital information for understanding economic and social structures.

Key datasets include:

  • Censuses (Population, Agricultural, and Economic), conducted every ten years to capture long-term demographic and economic trends.
  • Susenas (National Socio-Economic Survey) and Sakernas (National Labour Force Survey), which provide high-frequency data on poverty, income, education, and employment.

These sources enable policymakers to identify poverty pockets, assess inequality trends, and design targeted interventions grounded in empirical evidence.

Inequality and Social Mobility

Inequality in society can be related to spatial aspects where the spatial disparities remain a defining characteristic of inequality in Indonesia. For instance, while Malang Regency recorded a relatively low poverty rate of 8.98 per cent in 2024, it had the highest number of poor residents in East Java—more than 240,000 individuals.

Does Inequality Matter? Source: OECD

Poverty maps developed by The SMERU Research Institute using BPS data illustrate that economic growth tends to cluster around urban areas such as Malang City and Batu, whereas remote rural communities remain economically marginalised. This spatial pattern underscores the importance of geographically targeted development strategies.

Inequality is not confined to a single generation. The Great Gatsby Curve, popularised by economist Alan Krueger, highlights a strong relationship between income inequality and intergenerational immobility: societies with higher inequality tend to have lower social mobility.

In Indonesia, income mobility exists but remains limited. The persistence of inequality is largely attributed to differences in inheritance, education, and access to resources. Data from the Indonesia Longitudinal Ageing Survey (2023) show that parents’ educational attainment strongly predicts their children’s education levels—indicating that educational inequality is transmitted across generations.

Recent studies provide further insights into the mechanisms of inequality transmission. Research on early marriage and its effects on children’s education and labour outcomes, using Susenas data and techniques such as Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition, finds that children of parents who married early are more likely to leave school prematurely and enter the labour market at a younger age.

Moreover, parental education exerts a strong positive influence: each additional year of schooling for parents increases their children’s education by about 0.45 years. Conversely, larger household size and rural residence have negative effects on schooling outcomes. These findings suggest that cultural norms, household resources, and geographic conditions collectively shape educational opportunities and long-term income potential.

Conclusion

Data-driven policymaking is fundamental for designing effective strategies to combat poverty and inequality. Through comprehensive census and survey systems, Indonesia possesses the analytical tools needed to uncover the structural, spatial, and intergenerational dimensions of inequality.

By identifying who and where the poor are, policymakers can design targeted interventions—ranging from social protection programmes and educational equity policies to rural development initiatives—that promote inclusive growth. Reliable and well-utilised data ensure that development policies move beyond statistics to deliver tangible, equitable improvements in people’s lives (TS). 


Note: Full text of this paper was presented on National Seminar on Statistics 2025. Malang, 17 September 2025.

Popular posts from this blog

Skewness dan Kurtosis

-
Image
Pada statistika, dikenal istilah skewness dan kurtosis. Skewness adalah ukuran ketidaksimetrisan dalam distribusi nilai. Skewness dapat bernilai positif, negatif, dan nol. Skewness yang bernilai positif berarti ekor distribusi berada di sebelah kanan nilai terbanyak. Berarti, sebagian besar distribusi berada di nilai rendah. Skewness yang bernilai negatif berarti ekor distribusi berada di sebelah kiri, menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar nilai berada di sisi kanan kurva. Sementara skewness bernilai nol berarti nilai terdistribusi secara simetris, dengan jarak antara ekor distribusi sebelah kanan dan kiri sama besar. Sumber: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness Kurtosis adalah indikator untuk menunjukkan derajat keruncingan ( tailedness ). Semakin besar nilai kurtosis maka kurva semakin runcing. Nilai referensi kurtosis adalah 3. Jika nilai kurtosis lebih besar dari 3, maka kurva distribusi disebut leptokurtik. Sementara jika lebih rendah dari 3, maka disebut plat...
Read more

Bonus Demografi yang bukan Bonus Ekonomi

-
Image
Tetsuya Ishida, Gripe, 1996 Tetsuya Ishida (1973-2005) adalah pelukis surealis Jepang yang menangkap kegelisahan dan trauma anak muda Jepang yang mencapai usia dewasa pada tahun 1990-an, selama Dekade Hilang ( Lost Decade ) di negara tersebut.  Pada tahun 1991, gelembung ( bubble ) ekonomi Jepang meledak, mengakhiri periode pertumbuhan ekonomi pesat yang dimulai setelah Perang Dunia II. Hal ini ditandai dengan tingkat pengangguran naik tiga kali lipat, banyak kaum muda tidak dapat memperoleh pekerjaan penuh waktu dan harus beralih ke pekerjaan kasual dan bergaji rendah, atau tidak bekerja sama sekali.  Berbagai lukisannya menggambarkan situasi anak muda Jepang yang menarik diri dari kehidupan sosial, yang dikenal dengan hikikomori . Banyak dari mereka adalah pengangguran, laki-laki, tidak pernah keluar dari kamar, dan bergantung sepenuhnya pada orang tua. Di berbagai lukisan, Ishida menggambarkan mereka berada dalam kondisi inferior namun dilengkapi dengan kecanggihan teknolog...
Read more

Economic Complexity Index: Indonesia

-
Image
Produk ekspor suatu negara berfungsi untuk meningkatkan perekonomian bangsa, dengan cara mampu mencapai pangsa pasar yang lebih luas daripada pasar domestik. Dengan demikian, produsen tidak hanya bergantung pada masyarakat dalam negeri sebagai pembeli namun juga masyarakat yang ada di negara-negara lain. Semakin banyak barang yang diekspor berarti juga semakin banyak pemasukan bagi produsen dan bagi negara. Namun, apakah komoditas yang diekspor tersebut juga memiliki keunggulan dari sisi diversifikasi dan spesialisasi? Produk yang terdiversifikasi berarti semakin banyak variasi produk, dan semakin banyak keterampilan yang dibutuhkan untuk memproduksi barang. Sementara terspesialisasi berarti produk ekspor tersebut memiliki keunikan yang tidak dimiliki dan tidak mudah ditiru oleh pesaingnya.  Dengan memiliki komoditas yang terdiversifikasi dan terspesialisasi, suatu negara mampu mengembangkan daya saingnya sehingga lebih tinggi dibanding negara lain. Tidak hanya itu, produk yang ter...
Read more

Dua Sisi #KaburAjaDulu

-
Image
Tagar #KaburAjaDulu ramai diperbincangkan merespon kondisi Indonesia saat ini yang tidak kunjung memberi harapan atas perbaikan.  Keinginan untuk pindah ke luar negeri atau migrasi internasional tidak hanya untuk studi namun juga untuk bekerja.  Bagi lajang, keputusan bermigrasi seringkali dapat dilakukan dengan mudah. Namun bagi yang sudah berkeluarga, keputusan bekerja di luar negeri perlu pertimbangan matang dari anggota keluarga lain, terutama saat ia sudah memiliki pasangan atau anak, yang tidak dibawa pindah ke luar negeri.   Data BP2MI menunjukkan jumlah pekerja migran Indonesia yang ditempatkan berkisar 20.000 orang per bulan (Gambar 1).  Gambar 1. Penempatan Pekerja Migran Indonesia Periode Juli 2024 s.d. Januari 2025 Sumber:  bp2mi.go.id Data penempatan adalah data layanan penempatan calon pekerja migran Indonesia yang menyelesaikan seluruh rangkaian proses sebelum bekerja melalui SiskoP2MI.  Negara tujuan utama penempatan adalah Malaysia, Ho...
Read more

How Talent Fuels Growth

-
Image
Smart policies that help people realize their potential can be game-changing for entire societies By Gita Bhatt,  editor-in-chief of FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT - INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Every great leap in human progress—from the printing press to the steam engine to the semiconductor—has been driven by ideas. But ideas do not emerge in a vacuum; they come from people. And among them, it is often the most talented minds that push the boundaries of what is possible. This makes talent one of the world’s most valuable resources that can drive innovation and growth. Countries that develop the best minds gain a competitive edge. Those that fail to do so don’t just slow their own progress—the world loses, too. Every untapped genius is a discovery that never happens, a technology that never emerges, a field that never takes off. The next transformative idea—a cure for a disease, a revolutionary technology—could come from anywhere. But only if the right minds are given an opportunity to...
Read more

Robustness Check

-
Image
Robustness check seringkali menjadi upaya justifikasi peneliti bahwa model dan pemilihan variabel di penelitiannya adalah secara struktural valid. Namun, sebaliknya, bila robustness check tidak dilaksanakan dengan baik, ia akan menjadi tidak informatif dan bisa jadi membawa persepsi yang keliru.  Satu artikel lama namun masih relevan membahas bagaimana core dan non-critical core variables dapat diuji untuk mendukung robustness check.  White, H. & Lu, X. (2010) Robustness Checks and Robustness Tests in Applied Economics. https://www.economics.uci.edu/files/docs/micro/s11/white.pdf
Read more

UN-Habitat: Seven Ways to Create More Affordable Housing

-
Image
This post is from UN-Habitat (United Nations Human Settlements Programme).  From land reform to community-led housing, there are several key ways to create more affordable housing where it is most needed. One approach is through smarter policy and planning. National Urban Policies can align housing strategies with broader urban, social, and climate goals. Land use reform can give low-income families access to well-located plots, not just the urban periphery. Inclusionary zoning laws can also play a critical role by requiring new developments to reserve a portion of units for affordable housing. Financing models are another essential element. Public–private partnerships can attract private investment by offering incentives such as tax breaks or streamlined permitting processes. Housing funds and rent-to-own schemes can make homes more accessible for vulnerable groups, while climate finance and blended models can ensure that housing is both affordable and resilient. Microfinance and ...
Read more